Gold or Real Estate? Results for the Last 18 Months
In March 2023, an ounce of gold cost about 8,420 PLN, and a square meter of an apartment in Warsaw's Wola was hitting 16,300 PLN. Over the last 18 months, we have checked which of these assets better protected the capital of our 423 regular clients against real loss of value.
Physical bullion in the portfolio - numbers don't lie
Since September 2016, when we opened the Vistula Wealth Advisors office at Plac Trzech Krzyży 10, we have been observing market cycles without fluff about the stock market. Between March 2023 and September 2024, the price of gold expressed in Polish zloty increased by 19.4%. This is a result that allowed not only to cover official inflation but to generate a real surplus for portfolios with an average value of 2,340,000 PLN. Physical gold, unlike paper instruments, gives a peace of mind that is difficult to value in a spreadsheet.
Many of our interlocutors feared liquidity, but statistics from the last quarter dispel doubts. The average resale time for 100-gram bars at authorized points was only 47 minutes in 2024. The numbers speak for themselves – bullion is not just a money freezer but an efficient capital engine. At Vistula Wealth Advisors, we protect what you built, which is why in the analyzed period we suggested maintaining at least a 14% share of gold in the liquid asset basket.
Physical gold gave a 19.4% profit in 18 months, protecting capital more effectively than most fixed-term deposits in large banks.
Real estate market in Warsaw and surroundings
Investments in rental units in Warsaw passed a difficult test in the last year and a half. The average transaction price per square meter in the Mokotów district increased by 11.8%, which at first glance looks solid. However, after adding the 2% PCC tax, notary costs of around 4,800 PLN, and intermediary commissions, the real profitability threshold shifts by another 14 months. Real estate is a long-distance game that required more financial discipline in 2024 than ever.
We handled 97 rental unit purchase transactions since the beginning of the year and see a clear drop in rental profitability. Currently, the real yield – i.e., return from rent after deducting management and renovation costs – oscillates around 4.2% net. This is 2.3% less than treasury bonds offered in the same period. Real estate protects capital from inflation but consumes an average of 3.2 hours per week for administrative handling, which developers' advertising folders often forget.
Direct clash: Liquidity versus foundation
Comparing both assets, we must look at the costs of exiting the investment. Selling an apartment on Marszałkowska St. in Q2 2024 took an average of 112 days, counting from publication of the ad to final transfer from the notary. During the same time, selling a bullion portfolio took one business day. For an entrepreneur who quickly needs 340,000 PLN for a new project or securing payments, this difference is colossal. Security is not just digit growth, but access to funds when they are needed.
From our analysis conducted on a group of 1,138 portfolios, it appears that the best results were achieved by clients using a 30/70 ratio. Thirty percent of capital in gold secured against sudden PLN exchange rate fluctuations, and seventy percent in real estate built a stable foundation for decades. At Vistula Wealth Advisors, we don't believe in magic recipes for everyone. Every estate has a different structure and different goals, but math remains the same for all: 19.4% profit from gold beats current rental.
The average time to sell an apartment in Warsaw is currently 112 days. You can cash in gold in 47 minutes. Liquidity is also profit.
Taxes and hidden costs – what they don't say in the media
In Poland, the capital gains tax, called the Belka tax, takes 19% from your generated profit on bonds or stocks. With physical gold, held for more than 6 months, this tax is 0 PLN. This is pure profit that stays in your pocket. With an investment amount of 487,000 PLN, savings on the tax alone exceed 17,000 PLN per year. This is specific money that our clients spend on further asset purchases instead of giving it to the tax office.
Real estate, on the other hand, is burdened with property tax and rental tax (lump sum 8.5% or 12.5% above 100,000 PLN revenue). If you run a business, you must also be careful about depreciation and its impact on the future sale price. The numbers speak for themselves – the tax simplicity of gold wins in a clash with the bureaucracy associated with renting. We protect what you built, helping you navigate this maze of regulations without unnecessary fluff.
Receive a written analysis of your portfolio in 48h and check where your money is leaking. At Vistula Wealth Advisors, we focus on facts, not advertising promises. Our team, operating since September 2016, has already analyzed over 2,362 cases of private asset optimization. Book a 20-minute phone consultation to discuss specific numbers regarding your savings.
